2024 United States Presidential election. Presidential primary elections and Caucuses. An intellectual and cultural journey through American democracy.
The 2024 United States Presidential Election. November 5, 2024.
As America prepares for the 2024 election, this in-depth look at the political landscape provides a unique behind-the-scenes perspective leading up to the national conventions of the political parties.
@CBSNewsPress: An update from CBS News on invitations to the campaigns for a vice-presidential debate
🔹Related content:
@JDVance: The American people deserve as many debates as possible, which is why President Trump has challenged Kamala to three of them already. Not only do I accept the CBS debate on October 1st, I accept the CNN debate on September 18th as well. I look forward to seeing you at both!
@akeSherman: Team Harris says three debates --two presidential, one VP
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☑️ #199 Aug 14, 2024
Unprecedented times
info.ndr.com: [Excerpt] NDR: Market Digest, August 2024.
As market historians, we find rare market events fascinating as they provide perspective and historical parallels. This presidential election cycle is notable for several reasons: Trump is the first former president convicted of felonies, and he is the first candidate shot on the campaign trail since 1972. The biggest surprise was Biden withdrawing from the race. There are five cases since 1900 when the incumbent chose not to seek re-election. All but one occurred before the 22nd amendment established presidential term limits. The lack of an incumbent did not derail the typical second-half election-year rally (see chart)
Kevin McCarthy: All Trump has to do is win these 2 states
Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy on how Republicans should campaign leading up to the election as Kamala Harris continues to avoid media interviews.
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☑️ #198 Aug 12, 2024
A Conversation with President Donald Trump & Elon Musk
@RichardHanania: Graphic showing how Trump, Vance, Harris, and Tim Walz have spend their adult lives. Striking that the Democratic ticket has literally no private sector experience.
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☑️ #197 Aug 12, 2024
A Conversation with President Donald Trump & Elon Musk
@ThierryBreton: With great audience comes greater responsibility #DSA As there is a risk of amplification of potentially harmful content in 🇪🇺 in connection with events with major audience around the world, I sent this letter to @elonmusk.
President Trump's Interview with Elon Musk on X (update; 8/13/24)
@elonmusk (update; 8/13/24): Happy to host Kamala on an 𝕏 Spaces too.
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☑️ #196 Aug 12, 2024
Watch Biden's first interview since ending his 2024 reelection bid
@CBSNews : President Joe Biden sits down with CBS News chief election & campaign correspondent Robert Costa for his first interview since announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race. He talks about dropping his bid for reelection; his support of the Harris-Walz ticket; and what he sees as the threat posed to democracy if former President Donald Trump is successful in regaining the White House. #news#biden#politics
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☑️ #195 Aug 10, 2024
Harris Opens Up 4 Point Leads Over Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin Among Likely Voters
scri.siena.edu: [Excerpt] Voters in each State Say Trump Will do Better Job on Economy & Immigration, Harris Will do Better Job on Abortion & Protecting our Democracy.
CNBC All American Economic Survey Quarter Two 2024
pos.org (pdf): [Background] [Excerpt] As the recognized leader in world business news, CNBC is committed to supplying and reporting on key economic and market trends. Since 2006, CNBC has commissioned Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates to serve as bipartisan pollsters for the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, a nationwide survey of economic sentiment among American adults.
🔹Related content:
CNBC All-America Economic Survey: Swing voters have 39% negative approval rating for Trump (update; 8/12/24)
All-America Economic Survey: Trump holds 2-point lead over Harris (8/8/24)
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☑️ #193 Aug 8, 2024 | video update
Trump answers questions at news conference | full video
@CBSNews : Former President Donald Trump held a news conference Thursday, days after Vice President Kamala Harris selected Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her presidential running mate. Trump answered questions about the current state of the 2024 race, his stance on abortion rights, the economy and more. #news#politics#trump
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☑️ #192 Aug 8, 2024
Election Report - August 2024
blogs.microsoft.com: [Excerpt] Today we’re sharing intelligence about activity we’ve been tracking that increasingly points to Iran’s intent to influence this year’s US presidential election. In recent weeks, groups connected with the Iranian government have upped two kinds of activity. First, they’ve laid the groundwork for influence campaigns on trending election-related topics and begun to activate these campaigns in an apparent effort to stir up controversy or sway voters – especially in swing states. Second, they’ve launched operations that Microsoft assesses are designed to gain intelligence on political campaigns and help enable them to influence the elections in the future.
to be my running mate. As a governor, a coach, a teacher, and a veteran, he's delivered for working families like his. It's great to have him on the team. Now let’s get to work. Join us:
Joe Biden dropped out of the race for president on July 21, only a few weeks before the Democratic National Convention and the vote of delegates that would have confirmed his place as the party’s White House nominee.
Biden’s delegates won in the primaries were free to support any other candidate, but Harris was the only candidate to qualify for the virtual roll call. All votes cast for anyone other than Harris are counted as “present.”
3,923 delegates from across the country petitioned to put Vice President Harris on the ballot for the Democratic nomination, and Vice President Harris secured the support of 99% of participating delegates, with 84% of total delegates submitting a signature during the petitioning phase. No other candidate met the threshold of 300 delegate signatures to qualify for the ballot.
The DNC Chair and DNCC Chair announced today that the electronic roll call will commence at 9:00 AM ET on August 1, marking the official beginning of the 2024 Convention. Delegates will receive a secure ballot and support to cast their vote on a rolling basis starting at 9:00 AM ET.
The roll call voting period will end at 6:00 PM ET on August 5, the deadline for delegates to return their ballot.
Because Kamala Harris has the verified support of a number of pledged delegates equal to or greater than a majority of all pledged and automatic delegates, the votes of both pledged delegates and automatic delegates will be counted on the first ballot.
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☑️ #188 Aug 5, 2024
Latest U.S. opinion polls
ipsos.com: [Excerpt] Most Democrats are very enthusiastic about Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.
In the first ABC News/Ipsos poll since President Joe Biden stepped out of the 2024 presidential election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement on the Democratic ticket, enthusiasm and interest in voting has strengthened among Democrats. This comes as opinions of Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump have cooled slightly after jumping up in the week after the attempt on his life and the Republican National Convention.
foxnews.com: [Excerpt] The Trump-Kamala debate would be held Sept. 4 in Pennsylvania.
The moderators of the debate will be Fox News anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.
The debate rules will be similar to the rules of the June 27 CNN debate against Biden, who Trump wrote "has been treated horribly by his Party." But unlike the CNN debate, which did not have an audience, the Fox News debate will have spectators.
Fox News had invited Trump and Harris to participate in a debate in Pennsylvania on Sept. 17.
"I have agreed with FoxNews to debate Kamala Harris on Wednesday, September 4th," Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. "The Debate was previously scheduled against Sleepy Joe Biden on ABC, but has been terminated in that Biden will no longer be a participant, and I am in litigation against ABC Network and George Slopadopoulos, thereby creating a conflict of interest."
Stocks with current president is not running for re-election
@cyclesedge: S&P 500 seasonality with current president is not running for re-election.
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☑️ #185 Aug 2, 2024
Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee for president
FirstSquawk: KAMALA HARRIS SAYS I AM HONORED TO BE THE PRESUMPTIVE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES KAMALA HARRIS SAYS I WILL OFFICIALLY ACCEPT YOUR NOMINATION NEXT WEEK.
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☑️ #184 Jul 29, 2024 🟠 opinion
Treasury Quarterly Refunding
@dampedspring: 3:00 Today is the last time we need to discuss if Janet is going to pump markets ahead of the election. She has the lever in her hand and she will pull or not. But today is her last chance.
🔹Related content:
home.treasury.gov: Treasury Quarterly Refunding > Most Recent Quarterly Refunding Documents.
The S&P 500 has consistently excelled in August during election years, boasting a perfect win rate and an impressive average return of +2.85%.
🔹Related content:
@mikepsilva (7/26/24): With many people talking about the S&P 500 seasonality, I thought, "Wouldn't it be nice to see what each election year looked like during this period (June - August) and also quickly identify if it was a Republican or Democrat in office?"
Below, I have provided the charts for the last 20 presidential election years. Red lines indicate a Republican president in office, while blue lines indicate a Democratic president.
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☑️ #181 Jul 26, 2024
Barack and Michelle Obama Endorse Kamala Harris for President | Harris 2024The Obamas Endorse Kamala Harris for President | Harris 2024
@kamalaharris: Kamala Harris Launches Her Campaign for President. I’m Kamala Harris, and I’m running for President of the United States.
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☑️ #180 Jul 25, 2024
July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin
emersoncollegepolling.com: [Excerpt] Majority of Democrats in Swing States Say Harris Should be Nominated at DNC.
New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively.
Trump holds 49% support among registered voters nationwide to Harris’ 46%, a finding within the poll’s margin of sampling error. That’s a closer contest than earlier CNN polling this year had found on the matchup between Biden and Trump.
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☑️ #179 Jul 25, 2024
Today we watched a Polymarket trader essentially incinerate $770k in less than 10 minutes
@faybomb: Today we watched a Polymarket trader essentially incinerate $770k in less than 10 minutes. Utilizing four different “markets,” this person had a highly concentrated bet that would have paid out $1.2 million if President Biden had resigned in tonight’s address.
As of this moment, he/she has a $98k realized loss, a $442k paper loss, and very little chance of getting out of this debacle whole. Perhaps a not so obvious question; but how could a $770k bet only bring in $1.2 million on such a long shot outcome?
It appears as though the person either didn’t understand how to read the order book, didn’t know the difference between limit and market orders, or some combination of the two. The execution of this wager was so bad, it actually looked like someone was panic trading insider knowledge at any price.
The lesson? Understand the markets you’re trading. Understand the platform you’re using. Limit orders are your friend. And don’t assume you can fill your entire order at the lowest ask.
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☑️ #178 Jul 24, 2024
"There is a time and a place for new voices, fresh voices"
@WhiteHouse : President Biden Addresses the Nation.
Harris says she looks forward to accepting Democrats' nomination soon
axios.com: [Excerpt] Vice President Kamala Harris said late Monday she's "proud to have secured the broad support needed" to become the Democratic Party's presidential nominee — one day after President Biden suspended his re-election campaign and endorsed her.
Democrats plan to have nominee by Aug. 7: [Excerpts] The Democratic National Committee has confirmed it will hold a "virtual roll call” to select its party's presidential nominee before Aug. 7.
State of play: Any announced candidate who has 300 delegates (with no more than 50 from a single state ) will be eligible to appear on the first electronic ballot.
AP Democratic Delegate Survey: [excerpt] An Associated Press survey finds that Kamala Harris has secured the support of enough Democratic delegates to become her party’s nominee against Donald Trump.
The delegate survey is different from AP’s count of delegates won during the primary. The survey is an unofficial tally, as Democratic delegates are free to vote for the candidate of their choice when the party picks its new nominee.
Endorsed by Joe Biden after his decision to leave the race, Harris quickly locked up the support of her party’s donors, elected officials and other leaders. No other candidate was named by a delegate in the survey and Harris now appears to have the backing of more than the 1,976 delegates she’ll need to claim the nomination.
AP will continue to update the survey leading into the opening of the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19 in Chicago.
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☑️ #176 Jul 22, 2024
2024 Election Forecast
@acrossthecurve: Trump still holding up well in betting markets at 64 percent probability of victory according to bettors
A lot has changed in politics in the past 24 hours
@M_McDonough: A lot has changed in politics in the past 24 hours, and our election dashboard has been updated accordingly. Check out the latest version at {WSL ELECTION<GO>} on the Terminal. More to come
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☑️ #174 Jul 21, 2024
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination
@JoeBiden: My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.
President Biden: "I am endorsing Kamala Harris to be our next President of the United States"
"It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.
For my part: my very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made.
Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump."
@Andrea_Texas_82: On March 31, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson surprised American television viewers by announcing his decision not to seek re-election. This marked the first time in over fifty years that an incumbent president had not chosen to pursue a second term. This unprecedented decision occurred amidst escalating political tensions surrounding the Vietnam War and a decline in public approval.
On a similar note, President Biden announced his choice to step aside yesterday, allowing Vice President Kamala Harris to challenge Trump in the upcoming November election.
I am sure investors will recalibrate their Trump trade now that Biden has thrown the towel.
The current performance of small caps has been noteworthy.
While June marked the Russell 2000's poorest month relative to NASDAQ since May 2023, July has demonstrated its most robust performance since November 2016. However, I am skeptical regarding the rotation into small caps. Over 40% of Russell 2000 companies have leveraged their balance sheets with private credit, primarily in the form of floating-rate debt. With the Federal Reserve unlikely to significantly reduce interest rates, the majority of small companies' free cash flow will continue to be absorbed by the obligations of floating-rate debt.
As previously highlighted, the shift towards value stocks appears to be gaining traction, offering potential benefits for investors.
As we enter the turbulent and uncertain pre-election political period, I anticipate that markets will exhibit significant volatility and sideways movement.
Given the expected market turbulence, I strongly recommend that investors adhere to discipline. Based on my experience, dollar-cost averaging, rather than frequent trading, is a highly effective strategy for navigating the forthcoming period of four to five months, during which the markets may display erratic behavior
Over the past three and a half years, we have made great progress as a Nation.
Today, America has the strongest economy in the world. We've made historic investments in rebuilding our Nation, in lowering prescription drug costs for seniors, and in expanding affordable health care to a record number of Americans. We've provided critically needed care to a million veterans exposed to toxic substances. Passed the first gun safety law in 30 years.
Appointed the first African American woman to the Supreme Court. And passed the most significant climate legislation in the history of the world. America has never been better positioned to lead than we are today.
I know none of this could have been done without you, the American people. Together, we overcame a once in a century pandemic and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. We've protected and preserved our Democracy. And we've revitalized and strengthened our alliances around the world.
It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.
I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision.
For now, let me express my deepest gratitude to all those who have worked so hard to see me reelected. I want to thank Vice President Kamala Harris for being an extraordinary partner in all this work. And let me express my heartfelt appreciation to the American people for the faith and trust you have placed in me.
I believe today what I always have: that there is nothing America can't do - when we do it together. We just have to remember we are the United States of America.
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☑️ #171 Jul 21, 2024
It’s time to pass the torch
@CNN: Sen. Joe Manchin calls for Biden to drop out of the race.
Sen. Joe Manchin speaks with CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” about his current view of the 2024 presidential race and says, “I came to the decision with a heavy heart that it’s time to pass the torch to a new generation” and that President Biden should step aside. #CNN#News
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☑️ #170 Jul 20, 2024 🟠 opinion
Vice-President Kamala Harris
@stockinsider: If Joe Biden were to drop out of the presidential race, Vice-President Kamala Harris is the likely replacement. Democrat leaders would work to unite the party around a new candidate. Harris is favored, with Biden previously stating she is qualified to be president. The nomination is not guaranteed, and party factions must align. Biden's withdrawal would prompt crucial decisions for the Democratic Party.
Here’s how stocks performed the last time a president ended a re-election bid — in 1968
marketwatch.com: [Excerpt] Stocks rose after LBJ’s surprise announcement, but the market is already pricing in Biden’s withdrawal.
Today, however, bullish sentiment is at or close to all-time highs, according to my firm’s monitoring of stock-market timers. In contrast to when LBJ withdrew in 1968, current stock-market sentiment constitutes stiff headwinds for the market going forward — blunting any positive reaction the market might otherwise have to Biden’s withdrawal.
@bpolitics: Division in the US goes beyond politics. But the voters in the seven swing states likely to decide the 2024 presidential election live in an economy that's been growing more slowly and suffering more from inflation than the rest of the country
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☑️ #167 Jul 19, 2024
He is the best person to take on Donald Trump
@Morning_Joe: "Absolutely the president is in this race, you've heard him say that time and time again... He is the best person to take on Donald Trump."
— Biden campaign chair @jomalleydillon says Biden is not exiting the presidential race
@CSPAN : JD Vance Acceptance Speech at 2024 Republican National Convention.
JD Vance acceptance speech at 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, WI. ""I stand here humbled and I'm overwhelmed with gratitude to say I officially accept your nomination to be Vice President of the United States of America." https://www.c-span.org/republican-national-convention-2024
Why does the VIX future term structure peak in Oct and not November, when the election actually occurs?
@6_Figure_Invest : Normally $VIX futures are priced high when they first start trading and then decay down, eventually expiring close to the $VIX spot (assuming a relatively quiet market). This will likely not be the case for the next few months. The current October VIX future's price doesn't reflect the typical premiums, usually driven by cost of money, option decay characteristics, etc. Instead it mostly reflects event risk from the upcoming election.
Why does the VIX future term structure peak in Oct and not November, when the election actually occurs? Because the the Oct VIX future price is based on S&P 500 options ($SPX) expiring November 15th, not October. This odd configuration actually makes a lot of sense because options with 30 days to expiration are much more stable and predictable than on the day they expire. Using SPX options with 30 days until expiration is a much more suitable time to have the complex final settlement auction (called the HOSS) that's used to set the final expiration price of VIX futures. VIX options expire at the same time, to that same final expiration price.
So, the price of the Oct VIX futures is established by the prices of Nov SPX options, which reflect the uncertainty of the election. A similar thing happens when corporations release earnings, if there is a lot of uncertainty/potential volatility associated with the earnings release, both the put and call prices expiring soon after the release date carry a higher premium.
It's unlikely the uncertainty of the election will decrease before the election occurs, so guess what, the Oct future's price will likely stay elevated rather than decaying down to the spot VIX price. So, instead of the Oct VIX future dropping near expiration towards the VIX we will likely see the spot VIX price increasing (it starts using the Nov SPX options for its calculation too). Oh, and don't think VIX options can be used to profit from this, they are tied to the futures that expire the month they do, not the spot VIX...
VIX Futures don't operate in a vacuum, the futures before and after the Oct futures are also affected by this event risk. Arbitrage considerations tend to cause the futures surrounding the event be pulled towards the event price, smoothing out the term structure before and after.
Understandably this unusual behavior confuses a lot of people. The high contango in the front part of the VIX futures term structure will over estimate how much short term loss there will be in the long vol ETFs. A VIX futures term structure in contango doesn't mechanically create losses in Volatility ETFs like $VXX, $UVIX, and $UVXY (https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/09/the-cost-of-contango-its-not-the-daily-roll)
Once the event is over, the uncertainty is lessened (usually....) and then we can expect the VIX term structure to revert to its normal behavior, but this does not happen immediately. Volatility has a fast up, slow down characteristic. It takes a while for volatility to decay back to levels consistent with actual market volatility.
Democrats plan to formally nominate Biden in early August, ahead of convention
nbcnews.com: [Excerpt] Despite calls for more time to consider alternative nominees, Democrats are planning a virtual roll call vote weeks ahead of their national convention.
The plan was formally announced in a letter to Democratic National Committee members sent Wednesday morning, which comes after weeks of internal struggle about whether to stick with Biden after a weak debate performance.
Parties typically nominate their presidential standard bearers during live roll call votes at their national conventions, which are often a highlight of the events. But Democrats have been planning for the unusual pre-convention virtual roll call to avoid potential litigation in Ohio, they say.
@KellieMeyerNews: Some Democrats are signing a letter to the DNC to try to delay or stop the virtual roll call that would make Joe Biden the party’s nominee ahead of the convention.
@NewsNation obtained this letter from 2 separate house Dems, both of whom tell @JoeKhalilTV they intend to sign it.
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☑️ #161 Jul 17, 2024
Most say Biden should withdraw from the Presidential race
apnorc.org: [Excerpt] Sixty-five percent of Democrats say President Biden should withdraw and allow his party to select a different nominee. There are growing misgivings about Biden’s mental capability to be an effective president.
As President Biden continues to face the fallout from his debate performance, 7 in 10 adults, including 65% of Democrats, say he should withdraw and allow his party to select a different nominee. There are growing misgivings about Biden’s mental capability to be an effective president, and few adults think he can win in November.
NikkiHaley: I’ll start by making one thing perfectly clear. Donald Trump has my strong endorsement. Our country is at a critical moment. We have a choice to make. For more than a year, I said a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for President Kamala Harris. After seeing the debate, everyone knows it’s true.
city.milwaukee.gov/RNC: [Excerpt] The City of Milwaukee is excited to host the Republican National Convention from July 15-18, 2024. With tens of thousands traveling from around the country, it is our goal to showcase the vibrant, energetic, world-class city that is Milwaukee, Wisconsin. This webpage will contain all up-to-date information on the convention. For additional information, go to mke2024host.org or check back on this page for updates.
Thank you and we can't wait to welcome you to our great city!
mke2024host.org: [Excerpt] The Host Committee is a nonpartisan entity created to work with the City of Milwaukee in preparing for and successfully producing the Republican National Committee (RNC) convention. As part of its responsibilities, the Committee is responsible for signing the contracts, securing the venues and working with the local leaders to ensure the convention has everything it needs to succeed in its “host” city, Milwaukee. The RNC is a separate partisan organization that will direct and operate the convention for the purpose of nominating the Republican party nominee for President of the United States
Milwaukee's Story
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☑️ #157 Jul 15, 2024
Nominees Trump and Vance
@JDVance1: Just overwhelmed with gratitude. What an honor it is to run alongside President Donald J. Trump. He delivered peace and prosperity once, and with your help, he'll do it again. Onward to victory!
@arClandestine: For those asking “Why J.D. Vance?”: Trump told us his logic with the announcement. Currently, the tightest races are in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Rust Belt states will decide the 2024 election. Vance is from Ohio, and Trump told us in his announcement, that Vance’s job during the campaign will be to focus on winning over the hardworking people in these states. Vance is a Midwest/Rust Belt guy, who hopefully can appeal to these voters, and put Trump over the top in these battleground states. That’s the thought process behind the pick. Logically, it makes sense. Now we just have to make it work
@RealMacReport: Breaking: Rep. James. Comer has invited U.S. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to testify at a hearing on Monday, July 22. Americans demand answers about the assassination attempt of President Trump.
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☑️ #154 Jul 14, 2024
USSS Press Statement
@SecretSvcSpox: Here is the latest information from our investigation. We are grateful to the Secret Service team and our law enforcement partners for their swift action. Our thoughts go out to the families affected by this tragedy.
@nytimes: Doug Mills, a New York Times photographer, appeared to capture an image of a bullet streaking past Donald Trump’s head, a former FBI agent said. He took the photo while documenting the rally that turned into an attempt on a former president’s life.
ap.org: [Update] [Excerpt] TESTIMONIAL: AP PHOTOGRAPHER BEHIND THE TRUMP SHOOTING PICTURE.
Associated Press photojournalist Evan Vucci has spent years covering former President Trump. He was on the ground with Trump in Pennsylvania at the rally, and recounts the moments shots were fired.
@vanvucci: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump raises his fist as he is rushed off stage after an assassination attempt during a campaign rally in Butler, Pa. @apnews
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☑️ #152 Jul 12, 2024
Dear Colleague:
@josh_wingrove: House Democrat Leader Jeffries met privately with Biden last night and "expressed the full breadth of insight, heartfelt perspectives and conclusions about the path forward" that Democrats have shared, per a muted letter from Jeffries, via @HouseInSession
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☑️ #151 Jul 12, 2024
Breakingviews: Wall Street places reluctant bet on Trump
lipperalpha.refinitiv.com: [Excerpt] So far, Wall Street money is leaning to the right. The finance, insurance and real estate sectors have donated $247 million to Republican candidates in the current two-year political cycle, versus $227 million to Democrats, according to data crunched by OpenSecrets. Focus on donations supporting presidential hopefuls, and Trump is the financiers' clear favorite, collecting $115 million to Biden's $46 million. Of course, money does not guarantee electoral success: Wall Street roundly backed presidential losers Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
@MTSInsights: General election polls so far this week are consistently favoring Trump. Interestingly, in the Emerson poll that includes Kennedy, he receives 6% which chops off 2 pts from Trump and 3 pts from Biden when looking at the results from the Trump vs Biden poll. 3rd party dynamics will likely play a significant role in the election this year. #Election2024#trump#biden
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☑️ #149 Jul 10, 2024
An 18 hole golf match
@BidenHQ: Our response to Trump challenging President Biden to a golf match at his deranged rally tonight.
🔹Related content:
@BillMelugin_: NEW: At his rally in Florida, Trump offers to debate Biden again this week with no moderators, "man to man", to give Biden "a chance to redeem himself in front of the entire world." He also says he wants to challenge Biden to an 18 hole golf match. Says it will be huge event.
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☑️ #148 Jul 9, 2024
The nominating convention is a time for Republican unity
@NikkiHaley: The nominating convention is a time for Republican unity. Joe Biden is not competent to serve a second term and Kamala Harris would be a disaster for America. We need a president who will hold our enemies to account, secure our border, cut our debt, and get our economy back on track. I encourage my delegates to support Donald Trump next week in Milwaukee.
🔹Related content:
politico.com: Trump didn’t invite Haley to the RNC. She’s encouraging her delegates to back him anyway.
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☑️ #147 Jul 9, 2024
VIX Index
@bespokeinvest: This is the lowest the VIX has ever been on July 9th during an election year.
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☑️ #146 Jul 9, 2024
Biden letter to congressional Democrats and private discussions
@DeItaone: HOUSE DEMOCRATS TO REPORTEDLY TALK PRIVATELY ON BIDEN'S FUTURE
House Democrats will assemble Tuesday for a day of private discussions, primarily focusing on US President Joe Biden's potential as a candidate and the future direction of the party, ABC said after having access to notices.
But this lawmaker — who privately wants Biden to step aside — told NOTUS "Dems are folding all over the place." "The dam is holding.”
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☑️ #145 Jul 8, 2024
S&P 500 sector returns post 2020 US election
lipperalpha.refinitiv.com: [Excerpt] Even with everything that the pandemic had to throw at the economy, the four-year electoral equity cycle, whereby the fourth year of the presidential term delivers the highest returns while the mid-term year is usually the 'sweet spot' in terms of cheapness, seems inescapable. Markets have a lot to digest in 2024, with the potential ramifications of an uncertain presidential race topping the list.
Labour markets are also nearing peak conditions, with some indicators suggesting a slowdown in hiring. However, the US equity market has been exhibiting impressive second semester momentum so far. Despite some signs of slowing economic growth, primarily at the consumer level, earnings remain impressive. In some sectors like industrials and healthcare, labour costs are expected to increase in the near term, putting some pressure on profit margins and flattening equity returns. Expectations of a Fed cut later this year have boosted the valuations of almost all sectors — except utilities. Technically, the S&P 500 remains in a bull market and above its long-term uptrend, even after the eventful presidential debate that raised uncertainty as to whether the sitting president would — or rather is able — to stand for re-election. It seems as though the only thing that could upset the S&P 500 are the overbought conditions in the information technology sector, which could lead to a pause or pullback in this rally. If anything, the election seasonality pattern suggests that dips should be bought, as the S&P 500 tends to finish higher in an election year, especially if the first half of the year is as positive as it was in 2024.
@MarkNewtonCMT: Yes, Election yr Seasonality will "eventually" allow for some consolidation ahead of the Election. However, that time is not early July, which remains one of the best periods of most Election yr Summers. Happy 4th!
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☑️ #143 Jul 3, 2024
VP Harris
@bespokeinvest: As of this morning, betting markets are giving VP Harris higher odds of being President after the 2024 Election than current President Biden. The cross has happened
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☑️ #142 Jul 3, 2024
Swing States
@CBSNews: The race for president has shifted in Donald Trump's direction following the debate, as the former president now has a three-point edge over President Biden across the battleground states collectively, and a two-point edge nationally, a new CBS News poll shows. https://cbsnews.com/news/trump-biden-poll-debate-democrats-turnout/
🔹Related content:
@AaronBlake: In the swing states, Biden has gone from +1 last month (a good poll for him) to -3 now, per CBS/YouGov.
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☑️ #141 Jul 3, 2024
Scoop: Some DNC delegates want more time before nominating Biden
The delegates are still in the dark about when they are required to hold their "virtual roll calls" to nominate their presidential candidate.
Democrats — from lawmakers facing re-election to rank-and-file activists who make the party run — are still spooked by Biden's jarring debate performance last week. They want time and options in case Biden steps aside or is forced out by donors or lawmakers.
CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee
ssrs.com: [Excerpt] Three-quarters of US voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. His approval rating also has hit a new low following a shaky performance in the first debate of this year’s presidential campaign.
@granthawkridge: 2024 has been the best first-half start out of all election years going back to 1952.
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☑️ #137 Jun 30, 2024
Election Volatility
@leshrub: This post is about Volatility during US Elections, with a focus on the July-November period. We are just entering the summer trading months so it's a timely post. I review precedents and think of a possible roadmap for H2. This post is meme-free. I left the memes to the Politicians this time!
@beachman: Here is another way of looking at the possibility of higher volatility and how it compares to previous election years...
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☑️ #136 Jun 28, 2024
More Democratic Voters Than Not Want Biden Replaced After Debate Performance
pro.morningconsult.com: [Excerpt] 3 in 10 Democrats say Harris should be the party’s nominee if Biden drops bid.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
While our post-debate survey shows President Joe Biden has lost no immediate ground to Trump, most voters, including a 47% plurality of Democrats, say Biden should be replaced as the Democratic candidate for president.
A clear majority of debate-viewing voters (57%) say Trump performed best on Thursday, including 19% of Democrats, 60% of independents and 93% of Republicans.
The Biden campaign viewed last night’s debate as another opportunity to assuage concerns about his age and mental acuity, but that didn’t work: Among debate viewers, 78% say Biden is too old, compared with 64% of all voters who said the same days before the debate.
In a shift from 2020, voters were slightly more likely to say the debate moderators favored Trump than Biden.
poll.qu.edu: [Excerpts] As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, Trump has a slight lead over Biden 49 - 45 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. This is a small change from Quinnipiac University's May 22 poll when the race was too close to call with Biden receiving 48 percent support and Trump receiving 47 percent support.
"The political heat rises in this steamy American summer of discord. Trump holds a narrow lead in the head-to-head matchup and is in a slightly better position when all the candidates are included,"
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☑️ #130 Jun 25, 2024
AARP Nevada Poll: Voters 50+ are extremely motivated to vote this November
states.aarp.org: [Excerpt] In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump (R) leads President Joe Biden (D) by 7 percentage points among all voters – 44% to 37%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr getting 10%. Trump’s lead is greater among voters ages 50 and older, at 50% to 38%. President Biden leads among 50+ Hispanic and Latino voters in Nevada, 47% to 38%, with Kennedy getting 10%. However, among voters overall, in a head-to-head between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the race is considerably closer: Trump leads Biden 48% to 45%. Ballot access for Kennedy looms large in the race.
2024 statewide election survey: ARP Exclusive Poll: Trump Leads Biden With Nevada Voters Age 50-Plus. 12 points separate the two candidates among older voters in the state
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☑️ #129 Jun 23, 2024
Average Monthly Volatility
@MikeZaccardi: 25% increase in volatility from July-Nov of election years
🔹Related content:
ivolatility.com (6/7/24): [Excerpt] Hedging with VIX Calls Instead of SPY Puts: The only thing to remember, if looking to purchase VIX calls for later this year is the election, which has already created a bulge in the price of October VIX options.
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☑️ #128 Jun 20, 2024
National Polls vs State Polls: 2024 Presidential Election
“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”
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☑️ #127 Jun 15, 2024
Why Has Trump Stopped Attacking Big Business?
BIG by Matt Stoller: In 2016, Donald Trump went after CEOs so often that the Wall Street Journal set up a tracker of stocks whose leaders he insulted. No longer. What happened?
An Early Look at Election Trading With Equity Derivatives
asym500.com: This report is only available to Asym 500 subscribers (Asym 500 is available to institutional investors, including hedge funds, asset managers, pension funds, insurance companies, and RIAs. For subscribers meeting that criterion, there are several ways to subscribe)
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☑️ #125 Jun 14, 2024
The best start to a presidential election year in history
@charliebilello: The S&P 500 is up 13.9% in the first 114 trading days of 2024, the best start to a presidential election year in history. $SPX
Video: 34:41 The Best Start to a Presidential Election Year Ever
AI could change polling. AI can offer the ability to instantaneously survey and summarize the expressed opinions of individuals and groups across the web, understand trends by demographic, and offer extrapolations to new circumstances and policy issues on par with human experts. The politicians of the (near) future won’t anxiously pester their pollsters for information about the results of a survey fielded last week: they’ll just ask a chatbot what people think. This will supercharge our access to realtime, granular information about public opinion, but at the same time it might also exacerbate concerns about the quality of this information.
Wikipedia.org: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries.
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☑️ #120 Jun 7, 2024
🇺🇸 S&P 500
@ISABELNET_SA: In Presidential election years, June to August stands out as the strongest 3-month period of the year. The S&P 500 has been up 75% of the time, with an average return of 7.3% since 1928
8 Strategies to Protect Your Brain from Election Stress
Digital Brains & Behaviour: Political campaigns can increase stress and strain relationships. These strategies will help you build resilience and keep your cool during elections.
@SenatorJoeManchin: The official YouTube Channel of Senator Joe Manchin. Proudly serving the people of West Virginia and working to bring people of all political parties together around commonsense, bipartisan solutions.
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☑️ #115 May 31, 2024
3-month seasonality
@MikeZaccardi: Strongest election-year 3-month stretch? June-August. 75% hit rate, up 7.3% on average Suttmeier BofA
@timcaptales: 8 of the United States' worst presidents:
1. James Buchanan: Buchanan rejected slavery as an evil but like the majority of his party he refused to challenge it in any way. He essentially adopted a laissez-faire attitude toward slavery, believing it would somehow go away on its own.
Though he was from the Northern state of Pennsylvania, Buchanan often sided with Southerners on the slavery issue, and earned the nickname “doughface”—a term for Northern politicians with Southern sympathies. He was in support of multiple compromises that made it possible for slavery to spread into the western territories acquired by the Louisiana Purchase & the Mexican War.
Buchanan argued that the Constitution did not provide him the authority to take action against would-be seceders, so he chose to sit on his hands while the situation deteriorate
@NikkiHaley: I was asked today at @HudsonInstitute whether I would vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden, here's my answer:
"Trump has not been perfect … but Biden has been a catastrophe. So, I will be voting for Trump. But I stand by what I said in my suspension speech: Trump would be smart to reach out to the millions of people who voted for me, and not just assume they'll follow me,"
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☑️ #111 May 21, 2024
President Donald J. Trump Campaign Now Accepting Crypto, First Major Party Nominee To Do So
donaldjtrump.com: Today, President Trump’s campaign has launched a fundraising page that provides any federally permissible donor the ability to give - through its joint fundraising committees - using any cryptocurrency accepted through the Coinbase Commerce product.
This addition to President Trump’s already groundbreaking digital fundraising operation marks the first time a major party Presidential nominee has embraced cryptocurrency for donations. Contribution limits and disclosure requirements for crypto donations will follow Federal Election Commission regulations.
Starting today, people wanting to make federally permissible donations to the Trump campaign with crypto can do so at: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/crypto
The Presidents: Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew
rationalwalk.com: [Excerpt] With instruction on moral and ethical conduct completed, Jefferson turns to Peter’s education. It should be no surprise that Jefferson urges Peter to read what we now refer to as The Great Books. The course of study he proposes would be rigorous for anyone and might have seemed overwhelming for a fifteen year old, especially because Jefferson advocates reading in Ancient Greek and Latin rather than translations. However, this is how Jefferson himself was educated and it was expected that the leaders of Virginia would read widely from primary sources in a variety of disciplines.
Trump accepts Biden offer to debate him in June and September
foxnews.com: Trump blasts Commission on Presidential Debates as 'totally controlled by Democrats': 'Biden is the worst debater I have ever faced'.
Trump told Fox News Digital that "it is time for a debate to take place – even if it has to be held through the offices of the Commission on Presidential Debates, which are totally controlled by Democrats and who, as people remember, got caught cheating with me with debate sound levels."
@cnn10: Presidential debates take a historic turn as Biden and Trump agree …
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☑️ #106 May 15, 2024
Debates on June 27th and September 10th
@JoeBiden: I’ve received and accepted an invitation from @CNN for a debate on June 27th. Over to you, Donald. As you said: anywhere, any time, any place.
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@JoeBiden: I've also received and accepted an invitation to a debate hosted by ABC on Tuesday, September 10th. Trump says he’ll arrange his own transportation. I’ll bring my plane, too. I plan on keeping it for another four years.
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☑️ #105 May 14, 2024
May 14: Nebraska, Maryland, West Virginia primaries
Nebraska primary | Maryland primary | West Virginia primary: Biden, Trump win primaries.
If you want to reach a new group of voters, you have to go to a new place »
@conorsen: Both campaigns largely seem to believe that broadcast/cable news and the NYT/WSJ aren’t where persuadable voters are, which I think contributes to some of the perceived weirdness of this cycle.
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@YahooFinance: President Joe Biden will sit down for an exclusive interview with @BrianSozzi on the newly announced China tariffs at 3 PM.
Tune in here:
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☑️ #103 May 14, 2024 🟠 opinion
Kennedy's Path to Power
Bonner Private Research: Kennedy cannot win in the normal way, by taking votes from Biden and/or Trump. All he can do is to try to prevent Biden or Trump from getting enough swing state votes to reach the winning number.
@nntaleb: People talking abt election odds should be paying attention to the fact that the (actuarial) probability of at least one of the 2 main presidential candidate dying over the next year is ~12%*
*plus or minus adjustment for current health.
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☑️ #101 May 13, 2024
Battleground States Poll
scri.siena.edu: [Excerpt] Trump Up Over Biden by 6 in Arizona, 9 in Georgia, 13 in Nevada; Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin Remain Toss-ups Among Likely Voters.
“Former President Donald Trump now leads President Joe Biden by six points, 49-43% in Arizona, nine points, 50-41% in Georgia and 13 points, 51-38% among likely voters in a two-person race in the latest New York Times/Siena battleground polling. When third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are added to the horserace, Trump’s lead grows to 9 in Arizona, to 14 in Nevada and drops to 8 in Georgia.”
270towin.com: This calendar reflects the date of each state's 2024 primary election for offices other than president: This includes elections for U.S. House, as well as U.S. Senate and governor, where applicable. It will also include primaries for legislature in most states. Primaries for municipal elections (e.g., mayor) and special elections may occur on other dates and are not reflected on this calendar. Primary calendar data is from NCSL and 270toWin research.
This is not the presidential primary calendar. To see that, go here.
