2024 United States Presidential election. Presidential primary elections and Caucuses. An intellectual and cultural journey through American democracy.
The 2024 United States Presidential Election. November 5, 2024.
As America prepares for the 2024 election, this in-depth look at the political landscape provides a unique behind-the-scenes perspective leading up to the national conventions of the political parties.
Fitch Ratings-London-09 May 2024: Aggressive tariff rises under a possible second Donald Trump presidency would likely result in a reduction in US and global output in comparison to an illustrative baseline scenario with no further increases, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
Tariff Hikes Under Renewed Trade War Would Adversely Affect Global Output: Sharp increases in US trade tariffs look highly likely in the event of a second Donald Trump presidency. Reports of potential tariff increases include not just a sharp rise in tariffs on China up to 60%, but also a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports. A policy preference towards higher tariffs appears based in the belief that free trade and low tariffs relative to key trading partners are the main cause of the widening of the US trade deficit since the late 1990s. Protectionist policies are also seen as a way to support the reshoring of American manufacturing production lines and jobs. In Fitch Ratings’ opinion, the large and persisting US trade imbalance reflects the shortfall between US national savings and investment, and persistent capital inflows into the US.
Microsoft and OpenAI launch Societal Resilience Fund
blogs.microsoft.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Today, Microsoft and OpenAI are announcing the launch of a $2 million Societal Resilience Fund to further AI education and literacy among voters and vulnerable communities. In a year when two billion people across the globe will vote in democratic elections, it is more important than ever to provide tools and information that will help people navigate an increasingly complex digital ecosystem and find authoritative resources.
Understanding the source of what we see and hear online: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Today, OpenAI is joining the Steering Committee of C2PA – the Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity. C2PA is a widely used standard for digital content certification, developed and adopted by a wide range of actors including software companies, camera manufacturers, and online platforms. C2PA can be used to prove the content comes a particular source.1 We look forward to contributing to the development of the standard, and we regard it as an important aspect of our approach.
Stanley Druckenmiller: So I’m basically a guy without a candidate
@SquawkCNBC: Investor Stanley Druckenmiller on the presidential election and how candidates will handle the economy: "Under Trump, I'm worried about inflation. Under Biden, I'm worried about stagflation.”
🔹Related content:
CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Transcript: Billionaire Investor Stanley Druckenmiller Speaks with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Today: [Transcription] [Excerpt] DRUCKENMILLER: One of the reasons I’m confused by all this asymmetric talk toward cuts, if Trump were to get elected, I could see a scenario if inflation is not squashed and eliminated by then where you mentioned it, tariffs, immigration and animal spirits because I think business will get very excited with the lack of regulation and the cessation of some of the things I talked about, inflation actually takes off again the way it did in the ’70s. So I am open-minded. I’m not predicting this, but I’m open-minded to say under a Trump administration, inflation being 6 percent sometime in 2025. With Biden, I’m more worried about stagflation -- with all the government spending, with all the tricks that Yellen’s been using to manipulate the yield curve with the way the Fed seems to have reignited financial conditions, I think the inflationary outcome could be there. But I also fear regulation and everything else preventing productivity. So I’m basically a guy without a candidate. /
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☑️ #95 May 3, 2024
Preparing for November: 14% Election Bump for VIX® October Futures
cboe.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] This Index Insights Monthly Scorecard provides an update on the performance of indices that track the levels of volatility or the performance of hypothetical strategies that invest in options or futures.
14% Election Bump for VIX Futures Expiring in October
At the end of April, the settlement price for VIX futures expiring on October 16 was 19.87, more than 14% higher than the 17.35 price for VIX futures expiring on September 18, as seen in the chart below. The VIX futures expiring on October 16have the potential to be used as a hedge against the possibility of much higher volatility that may occur around the 2024 U.S. presidential election on November 5.
@axios: SCOOP: Gov. Doug Burgum moves up Trump's VP ladder
🔹Related content:
PredictIt: Who will win the 2024 Republican vice presidential nomination?
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☑️ #93 Apr 26, 2024
Presidential Immunity
Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance: Worried about the state of the republic? Get the legal knowledge & analysis you need to be an advocate for democracy, along with a dose of savvy optimism.
whitehouse.gov: Remarks by President Biden at a Campaign Event | Philadelphia, PA
“What an incredible honor. What an incredible honor. I don’t want to become emotional, but what an incredible honor to have the support of the Kennedy family.”
What Did Joe Biden Today? *President Biden speaks at a campaign event at the Martin Luther King, Jr. Recreation Center in Philadelphia, PA (Photo credit IMAGO / ZUMA Wire)
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☑️ #89 Apr 17, 2024
Announcing 2024 election model plans
natesilver.net: The presidential model will be available to Silver Bulletin subscribers beginning in June.
2024 US Election – Big or Small Macro Policy Shift Coming?
ssga.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] With President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump confirmed as the nominees, it is an opportune time to examine the respective policy stances and what an election victory for either candidate would mean for the United States economy. We focus on the macroeconomic policy implications in this article.
Federal Interest Payments as Share of Revenues 1980-2024
“Erin Burnett OutFront": RFK Jr. says Biden is bigger threat to democracy than Trump
cnn.com/OutFront: [Transcription] [Excerpt] CNN's Erin Burnett speaks with Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. about his criticisms of former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
@ErinBurnett: “I think him trying to overthrow the election clearly is a threat to democracy. But the question was, who is the worse threat to democracy? And what I would say is I you know, I’m not gonna answer that question, but I can argue that President Biden is” @RobertKennedyJr
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@ErinBurnett: “do you really believe that when people talk about the threat to democracy that Trump poses. Do you really think that that is equal to Biden?
@RobertKennedyJr “I mean, listen, I can make the argument at President Biden is a much worse threat to democracy.”
Kennedy Welcomes Nicole Shanahan as His Running Mate
kennedy24.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] OAKLAND, CA—MARCH 26, 2024—Independent Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. today welcomed attorney, tech entrepreneur, and philanthropist Nicole Shanahan to the Kennedy campaign as his vice presidential running mate during a sold-out event in Oakland, California. Shanahan spoke for nearly 30 minutes sharing her excitement and reasons for joining the ticket following a 10-minute video about her life. [see remarks below, watch the live stream here]
The Kennedy campaign has launched a robust ballot access plan to ensure the Kennedy/Shanahan ticket is on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
cnbc.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Biden pulls even with Trump as economic view improves slightly, CNBC survey shows.
The survey of 1,001 Americans across the country showed 46% of voters choose Trump and 45% picking Biden in a one-on-one match with 10% undecided. Trump held a 48-42 lead in the December poll. Both polls had a margin of error of +/-3.1%
mcoscillator.com: We are now firmly into this election year, with both major parties' candidates determined. This moment is pretty early for that type of resolution. It has also been more than a century since a former president served as a major party's candidate seeking reelection (and no, Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party run in 1912 does not count).
«LittleTuesday» 2024: Two candidates secured the required number of delegates in the first U.S. presidential election to feature such a rematch since 1956.
DNC and DNCC Statements on President Biden Clinching Democratic Nomination.
democrats.org: DNC and DNCC Statements on President Biden Clinching Democratic Nomination.
Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Jaime Harrison and Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) Chair Minyon Moore released the following statements after President Biden surpassed the 1,968 pledged delegates needed to become the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee:
IT’S OFFICIAL: President Donald J. Trump Has Eclipsed the Delegate Threshold to Officially Clinch the Republican Nomination for President of the United States.
The greatest number of U.S. states held primary elections and caucuses: Alabama primary | Alaska Republican caucus | American Samoa caucuses | Arkansas primary | California primary | Colorado primary | Iowa Democratic caucus (mail only) | Maine primary | Massachusetts primary | Minnesota primary | North Carolina primary | Oklahoma primary | Tennessee primary | Texas primary | Utah Democratic primary / Utah Republican caucus | Vermont primary | Virginia primary
- Democrats: Joe Biden sees victories in key states.
- Republicans (delegates won so far):Donald Trump 722 (Overall: 995) | Nikki Haley: 46 (Overall: 89)
🔹Related content:
[Update 3/6/24]@NikkiHaley: I end my campaign with the same words I began it from the Book of Joshua. I direct them to all Americans, but especially to so many of the women and girls out there who put their faith in our campaign. Be strong and courageous. Do not be afraid. Do not be discouraged. For God will be with you wherever you go. In this campaign, I have seen our country’s greatness. From the bottom of my heart – thank you America.
🔘 Nikki Haley suspends US presidential campaign withdrawing from GOP nomination race after won the Vermont Republican primary on Super Tuesday and the Washington DC Republican primary on Sunday (3/3/24): first-ever Republican woman to win a presidential primary.
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☑️ #73 Mar 6, 2024
The Performance of US Equities in Election Years Over the Last Century
ssga.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Taken altogether, our research suggests that US equity returns during an election year are not meaningfully distinct from non-election year returns. That said, while there was little disparity in returns over the entire 100-year period, we did observe a more material level of outperformance (around 0.3%-1%) during two to three months of an election year (generally around July and August). Interestingly, this positive performance differential reversed after Election month i.e., the month in which elections took place (November)
supremecourt.gov: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Because the Constitution makes Congress, rather than the States, responsible for enforcing Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment against federal officeholders and candidates, the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering former President Trump excluded from the 2024 Presidential primary ballot.
Supreme Court of the United States - Trump v. Anderson (23-719) - Oral Arguments > Question Presented:
The Supreme Court of Colorado held that President Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President because he "engaged in insurrection" against the Constitution of the United States-and that he did so after taking an oath "as an officer of the United States" to "support" the Constitution. The state supreme court ruled that the Colorado Secretary of State should not list President Trump's name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot or count any write-in votes cast for him. The state supreme court stayed its decision pending United States Supreme Court review.
The question presented is:
Did the Colorado Supreme Court err in ordering President Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?
“I have reviewed the Anderson decision carefully. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that individual states lack authority to enforce Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment with respect to federal offices,” wrote Secretary Bellows. “Consistent with my oath and obligation to follow the law and the Constitution, and pursuant to the Anderson decision, I hereby withdraw my determination that Mr. Trump’s primary petition is invalid.”
Secretary Bellows withdrew Part D.2 of the December 28, 2023 Ruling – the section that pertains to state enforcement of Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment – as well as the Ruling’s conclusion.
As a result of the modified ruling, votes cast for Mr. Trump in the March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election will be counted.
FULL SPEECH: President Donald J. Trump Gives Remarks at Mar-a-Lago - 3/4/24
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☑️ #71 Mar 3, 2024
@JoeBiden: The Bipartisan Border Security Agreement was on its way to being passed.
Then Donald Trump came along and said, don't do that, it’ll hurt my election chances.
That's a hell of a way to do business in America for such a serious problem. It’s time to act.
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☑️ #70 Mar 2, 2024
Republican Caucuses by NBC News (*projected winner): Idaho, Michigan, Missouri
Michigan Presidential Caucus Election Results: At today’s state party convention, thirty-nine of Michigan’s 55 Republican delegates will be awarded at the congressional district caucuses.
Missouri Presidential Caucus Election Results: The results are the number of state delegates each candidate has been awarded by the local caucuses. They will attend the Missouri Republican Party state convention and are bound to support the candidate to which they have been awarded.
ndr.com: [Transcription] [Excerpts] Through February, the S&P 500 gained 6.8% while the Dow Industrials added 3.5%. A strong start has boded well for the incumbent party. When the incumbent has gone on to win in November, the DJIA has risen a median of 0.8% in January and February versus -5.2% when the incumbent has lost.
For incumbent Democrats, the spread has been wider: +2.6% when they retained the White House versus -6.2% when they lost it. A two-month window eight months before Election Day is hardly a robust indicator considering how many factors go into voters’ decisions making processes, but recent market performance is a rare positivestatistic for Biden.
🔹Related content:
A positive sign from an unlikely place for Biden (2/28/24): A strong start to the year for stocks has tended to foreshadow an incumbent victory, especially for Democrats. Many factors determine an incumbent's reelection bid, including perceived policy effectiveness and international events. A continued equity rally on disinflation, rate cuts, and economic growth would boost Biden's chances, ceteris paribus.
2024 Election Handbook (2/21/24): A rematch is unprecedented in modern presidential history, but markets may have a better sense of policies than if someone new enters the White House. The stock market has bottomed around May of election years, but the timing has varied widely based on when the winner is obvious. Leadership has been more defensive in the run-up to presidential elections and has transitioned more cyclical post election, especially after the incumbent party loses.
@edclissold: A thread on the election and markets: Biden/Trump is a rematch no one wants, but Biden in particular has an approval rating issue. At 41%, he has the lowest of any president seeking reelection at this point in the year. The median for incumbents who won is 55%. @NDR_Research 1/5 2/53/54/55/5
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☑️ #68 Mar 1, 2024
HarrisX/Forbes poll: Biden defeated by Trump
@ForbesBreakingNews: BREAKING NEWS: HarrisX/Forbes Poll Reveals Bad News For Biden In Head-To-Head With Trump—And More.
According to the survey, Trump enjoyed the support of 52% of participants, while Biden had the backing of 48%.
Supreme Court agrees to consider Trump immunity claim in further delay of election interference trial
nbcnews.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] The court said in a brief order it would hear arguments and issue a ruling on the immunity claim. In the meantime, the case is on hold, meaning no trial can take place.
The order said the court would hear the case, which could take months to resolve, the week of April 22. That timeline allows for a ruling by the end of the court's regular term in June, which is faster than is typical when the court hears arguments but not as fast as prosecutors wanted it to be.
Case No. 23-3228, United States of America v. Donald J. Trump
The application for a stay presented to The Chief Justice is referred by him to the Court. The Special Counsel’s request to treat the stay application as a petition for a writ of certiorari is granted, and that petition is granted limited to the following question: Whether and if so to what extent does a former President enjoy presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office. Without expressing a view on the merits, this Court directs the Court of Appeals to continue withholding issuance of the mandate until the sending down of the judgment of this Court.
The application for a stay is dismissed as moot. The case will be set for oral argument during the week of April 22, 2024. Petitioner’s brief on the merits, and any amicus curiae briefs in support or in support of neither party, are to be filed on or before Tuesday, March 19, 2024. Respondent’s
brief on the merits, and any amicus curiae briefs in support, are to be filed on or before Monday, April 8, 2024. The reply brief, if any, is to be filed on or before 5 p.m., Monday, April 15, 2024.
Docket for 23A745 > Application (23A745) for a stay, submitted to The Chief Justice (pdf): [Transcription] [Excerpt] In addition, President Trump is the leading candidate for President in the 2024 election. Conducting a months-long criminal trial of President Trump at the height of election season will radically disrupt President Trump’s ability to campaign against President Biden—which appears to be the whole point of the Special Counsel’s persistent demands for expedition.
Special Counsel Jack Smith asked for the trial of former United States President Donald Trump, about his supposed mishandling of classified documents, to start on July 8, a court filing revealed.
This request is to speed up the trial, now planned for May. Meanwhile, Trump's lawyers want the trial delayed to August 12.
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☑️ #66 Feb 28, 2024
The decision seeks to exclude the former president from the Illinois primary
hsplegal.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Cook County Circuit Judge Porter issued her decision following a several hour hearing, argued for the Objectors by Lederer, and review of a robust record including several thousand pages of evidence and videos. Implementation of Judge Porter’s order is stayed if, by March 1, 2024, Trump appeals the ruling to the Illinois Appellate Court or Illinois Supreme Court or if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling in Trump v. Anderson that is inconsistent with her ruling.
Judge Porter delayed the effect of her decision until Friday giving Trump time to appeal in Illinois state courts.
https://www.cookcountycourt.org/
freespeechforpeople.org: [Transcription] [Excerpt] A diverse group of Illinois voters, represented by Free Speech For People and the Chicago firm of Hughes Socol Piers Resnick & Dym and Illinois election lawyer Ed Mullen, initiated the challenge before the Illinois State Officers Electoral Board on January 4, 2024.
[Summarizer] The Court has agreed to consider the application as a request for a writ of certiorari, focusing on the question of whether, and to what extent, a former President is immune from criminal prosecution for actions that were part of his official duties while in office.
The case will be discussed in detail during the week of April 22, 2024.
Title: Donald J. Trump, Petitioner v. United States
No.23-939 United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit a petition for a writ of certiorari s granted (23-939), and that petition is granted limited to the
Michigan voters voted on an earlier Election Day than usual because the state decided to have its presidential primary earlier. This change is part of a bigger plan by the Democratic National Committee to change the election schedule across the country. From now on, Michigan will have its presidential primaries on the fourth Tuesday of February.
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☑️ #63 Feb 25, 2024
These are the moments we were made for. Nobody else will do what we will in the next 253 days. It’s up to us. Let’s get this done.
In an email to staff obtained by POLITICO, Americans For Prosperity CEO Emily Seidel said Sunday that the group’s political arm, AFP Action, had to “take stock” of its spending priorities after Haley’s loss in the South Carolina primary. The Koch-aligned group, Seidel said, will now focus its efforts on competitive Senate and House races.
nikkihaley.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] South Carolina has spoken. We’re the fourth state to do so. In the next ten days, another 21 states and territories will speak. They have the right to a real choice, not a Soviet-style election with only one candidate. And I have a duty to give them that choice.
B1: GOP primary > If the Republican presidential primary were today, whom would you vote for?
B4B: Haley vs Biden > If you had to choose would you vote for [Biden] or for [Haley]?
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☑️ #61 Feb 24, 2024
538 polls: South Carolina Republican primary
[Summarizer] South Carolina has 50 delegates to distribute proportionally among the contestants, and while this is a small fraction of the 1,215 delegates needed to secure the presidential nomination, the Southern state primary often serves as an early indicator of the Republican presidential nominee.
Since 1980, when the modern version of the South Carolina primary began, only one Republican primary winner, Newt Gingrich in 2012, failed to clinch the party's presidential nomination. Registered voters in South Carolina, whether they identify as Republicans, Democrats, or independents, can vote in the primary election due to the state's lack of a formal party registry.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
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☑️ #60 Feb 21, 2024
The Quinnipiac University Poll
poll.qu.edu: [Transcription] [Excerpt] 2024 Election. Biden Holds On To Slight Lead Over Trump, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump Gets Higher Marks On Age, Mental & Physical Fitness; Biden Does Better On Ethics, Empathy & Temperament.
In a hypothetical 2024 general election presidential matchup, President Joe Biden holds a small lead over former President Donald Trump with 49 percent of registered voters supporting Biden and 45 percent supporting Trump, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.
Excerpt: His life began on February 11, 1731, under the Julian calendar. The British adopted the Gregorian calendar in 1752 and his birthdate was changed to February 22, 1732. Congress of course made the celebration of George Washington’s birthday the third Monday in February, which means his birthday will never be celebrated on either date.
Anthropic introduces Prompt Shield ahead of US elections
anthropic.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Preparing for global elections in 2024
In the United States, we will be trialing an approach where we use our classifier and rules engine—to identify election-related queries and redirect users to accurate, up-to-date authoritative voting information.
CBS News / YouGov polls: South Carolina Republican primary
cbsnews.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] In South Carolina's 2024 Republican primaryelection, most voters look back approvingly on Nikki Haley's time as the state's governor, but also say it doesn't matter to them that she's from the state — and instead say that they're thinking nationally about the party's nomination.
CBS News Poll – February 5-10, 2024. Registered voters in South Carolina (pdf) via scribd.com. Source: CBS Interactive Inc.
NBC News Projections (National Election Pool Consortium): Donald Trump and Joe Biden win
nbcnews.com: [Transcription] [Excerpts] Former President Donald Trump won the Nevada Republican caucuses, NBC News projects, after running essentially unopposed in the contest. Twenty-six delegates are at stake.
Nevada also held Republican and Democratic primaries on Feb. 6, two days earlier. President Joe Biden won the Democratic contest and all of the state's 36 delegates.
Watch: Supreme Court hears arguments over Trump's removal from Colorado ballot | NBC News
@NBCNews: Listen to live audio as the Supreme Court hears arguments in former President Trump's appeal of a Colorado decision to remove him from the state's primary ballot.
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☑️ #52 Feb 8, 2024
Stop AI-generated voices in robocalls
docs.fcc.gov (txt): [Transcription] [Excerpt] FCC MAKES AI-GENERATED VOICES IN ROBOCALLS ILLEGAL.
WASHINGTON, February 8, 2024—Today the Federal Communications Commission announced the unanimous adoption of a Declaratory Ruling that recognizes calls made with AI-generated voices are “artificial” under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA). The ruling, which takes effect immediately, makes voice cloning technology used in common robocall scams targeting consumers illegal. This would give State Attorneys General across the country new tools to go after bad actors behind these nefarious robocalls.
FCC 24-17: Implications of Artificial Intelligence Technologies on Protecting Consumers from Unwanted Robocalls and Robotexts (pdf): [Transcription] [Excerpt] In January, potential primary voters in New Hampshire received a call, purportedly from President Biden, telling them to stay home and “save your vote” by skipping the state’s primary.(1) The voice on the call sounded like the President’s, but of course it wasn’t. Those were voice cloning calls. The use of generative AI has brought a fresh threat to voter suppression schemes and the campaign season with the heightened believability of fake robocalls.(2) Another example: parents have been scared half to death hearing their child’s voice on the other end of the line, saying they’ve been kidnapped, or need money to get out of trouble.(3+) In actuality, their children are safe and unaware of the chaos. Finally, fraudsters continue to target the elderly through “grandparent” scams, but voice cloning adds a frightening new dimension to these attacks on those who may be least able to detect them.(4) These are real attacks causing harm and confusion, and given their effectiveness, we can assuredly expect more to come.
Life Corp. and Lingo Telecom have been identified for illegal AI-generated robocalls in New Hampshire.
Supreme Court of the United States - Trump v. Anderson (23-719) - Oral Arguments > Question Presented:
The Supreme Court of Colorado held that President Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President because he "engaged in insurrection" against the Constitution of the United States-and that he did so after taking an oath "as an officer of the United States" to "support" the Constitution. The state supreme court ruled that the Colorado Secretary of State should not list President Trump's name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot or count any write-in votes cast for him. The state supreme court stayed its decision pending United States Supreme Court review.
The question presented is:
Did the Colorado Supreme Court err in ordering President Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?
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☑️ #50 Feb 6, 2024
The Presidential Preference Primary (PPP) is required by Nevada law
silverstateelection.nv.gov: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Only candidates who filed for the Presidential Preference Primary will have results displayed on this page.
Click here for the list of candidates who filed. Election Results are unofficial. This page automatically refreshes.
Screenshot. Source: NVSOS.gov - Nevada Secretary of State
The FEC has jurisdiction over federal campaign finance law and does not have authority over the administration of elections.
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☑️ #42 Feb 2, 2024
Presidential Ballot Will Be Crowded With Third Party Candidates
reason.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] RFK Jr. predicts all 50 states, Libertarian Party expects at least 48, Green Party over 30, and a still-waffling No Labels 32.
And we're not just talking about repeat randos like Rocky De La Fuente, either—independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with by far the highest favorability ratings in the race, has consistently polled higher than any nontraditional presidential candidate since Ross Perot in 1992. The centrist 501(c)(4) nonprofit No Labels, which is busy racking up ballot access in preparation for a post-Super Tuesday decision about whether to enter the fray, has been eyeing such nationally known figures as Sen. Joe Manchin (D–W.Va.) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Jill Stein, with more name recognition than any Green candidate since Ralph Nader, is again seeking the nomination of a party confident about improving on its 30 ballot lines from 2020. And the Libertarian Party (L.P.) may have lesser-known presidential candidates running thus far but is riding a three-election streak of third-place finishes, enjoys a large lead in third party registration, and expects to be on the ballot in 48 states. "I think that 47 would be a failure," said Libertarian National Chair Angela McArdle.
RNC Moving to Declare Trump Its Presumptive Nominee
thedispatch.com (pdf): [Transcription] Resolution to declare president Trump as the apparent nominee of the Republican Party.
WHEREAS the RNC has carried out the 2024 Republican nomination process by impartially supporting the caucus/primary processes nationwide to provide a level playing field for all candidates;
WHEREAS all Republican primary candidates were offered slots on the debate stage based upon achieving public and objectively measurable criteria and a combination of such candidates debated before national audiences on four occasions starting in Milwaukee in August 2023;
WHEREAS all of the RNC-sponsored debates, were robust, issues-focused and allowed all candidates to make their cases to the electorate;
WHEREAS all candidates aggressively competed for many months in the Iowa Caucus covering all corners of the state, and strongly and clearly conveying their visions for America to Iowa's caucus-goers;
WHEREAS, against formidable, well-funded campaigns waged by all candidates, President Donald J. Trump completely dominated the January 15, 2024 Iowa Caucuses by a record margin earning 51% of the vote, nearly 30 points ahead of 2nd place;
WHEREAS President Trump won the NH primary by 11 points (54% to 43%), which included an overwhelming percentage of registered Republican voters choosing Pres. Trump;
WHEREAS, multiple polls show President Trump with an insurmountable lead in all states voting from now through Super Tuesday, including a 30 point lead in South Carolina;
WHEREAS all evidence negates the possibility of a mathematical path forward to the 2024 Republican nomination by any candidate other than President Trump, our presumptive nominee;
WHEREAS total spending by all campaigns in the 2024 Republican primary cycle is estimated to have exceeded $300 million;
WHEREAS any money spent from this moment forward in the primary process is better spent fighting the democrats by focusing on President Biden's deadly border crisis, failed economic policies and disastrous and dangerous foreign policy
WHEREAS, it is imperative for the welfare of all Americans that President Trump defeat President Biden this November and that all efforts and resources from patriots nationwide be exclusively focused on that and Republican victories down the ballot;
WHEREAS, only a fully united and singularly focused Republican party with all leaders fully onboard for victory can defeat the democrats in the most important election of our lifetimes;
RESOLVED that the Republican National Committee expresses heartfelt gratitude to all candidates who offered themselves in this long and arduous process,
RESOLVED, that the Republican National Committee acknowledges and respects the commitment and contributions of all persons who worked tirelessly to support this nomination process, particularly the grassroots supporters of all candidates involved;
RESOLVED that the Republican National Committee hereby declares President Trump as our presumptive 2024 nominee for the office of President of the United States and from this moment forward moves into full general election mode welcoming supporters of all candidates as valued members of Team Trump 2024.
[T]he Secretary of State and three challengers to Donald J. Trump’s primary petition—Kimberley Rosen, Thomas Saviello, and Ethan Strimling—appeal from an interlocutory order of the Superior Court (Kennebec County, Murphy, J.) remanding to the Secretary of State the matter in which the Secretary of State decided that the petition submitted by former President of the United States Donald J. Trump as a candidate for the Maine Republican Party’s presidential primary was invalid because of a false declaration of qualification on his candidate consent form. Because the appeal is not from a final judgment, we dismiss the appeal as interlocutory and not justiciable.
@stranter: UPDATED PROJECTED MARGIN: With 78% projected vote in right now we are projecting a 10.7-pt margin for Trump (this is a moving target). DDHQ/The Hill polling average has a 13.9-pt margin for Trump - we do not think his margin will dip below 10 pts.
@BidenHQ: Left: Trump in 2020 saying the stock market will collapse if President Biden wins Right: The Dow and S&P 500 hitting all-time record highs today.
decisiondeskhq.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] First votes will be reported at midnight (EST) as Dixville Notch will continue their tradition of casting their ballots in the opening minutes of Election Day. Polls in most of the state close at 7 p.m. (EST), though some cities will keep polls open until 8 p.m. (EST). DDHQ will not make any race projections until after all polls have closed.
“The Ballot Room of The Balsams Resort” has been the site of Dixville Notch’s presidential primary votes since 1960s, where are cast just after midnight on the day of the New Hampshire primaries.
The votes from Dixville Notch residents are among the first to be cast, counted, and reported nationally:
All six Dixville Notch voters unanimously voted for Republican Nikki Haley.
New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary is officially underway. The tiny community of Dixville Notch is casting their votes at the stroke of midnight Tuesday morning, representing the first votes for the first primary in the country.
Incumbent President Joe Biden was a write-in candidate because of a Democratic primary scheduling issue.
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☑️ #36 Jan 21, 2024
DeSantis suspends Presidential campaign
@RonDeSantis: “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” - Winston Churchill
Context on X: The quoted words in this tweet do not appear in this phrasing in any of Winston Churchill's books, articles, speeches and papers, although they have been frequently misattributed to him.
OpenAI suspends bot developer for presidential hopeful Dean Phillips
washingtonpost.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] It’s the ChatGPT maker’s first known action against the use of its technology in a political campaign.
The artificial intelligence company OpenAI banned the developer of a bot mimicking long shot Democratic presidential hopeful Rep. Dean Phillips — the first action that the maker of ChatGPT has taken in response to what it sees as a misuse of its AI tools in a political campaign.
Silicon Valley insiders are trying to unseat Biden with help from AI (1/18/24): [Transcription] [Excerpt] A new super PAC backed by Silicon Valley insiders is mobilizing to spread Phillips’s ideas in an unusual way. This week, they launched Dean.Bot after weighing the implications of using a sophisticated AI tool that can chat like a real person — one of the first known uses of artificial intelligence in a political campaign.
dean.bot: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Hi! We’ve made an AI voice bot of Congressman Dean Phillips, Democratic candidate for President, that you can speak with.
This is meant to be a fun educational tool, and it's not perfect. The voice bot sounds like him and is programmed to draw on his ideas, but it's possible it will say things that are wrong, incorrect, or shouldn’t be said.
Feel free to ask it anything, but please take answers with a grain of salt!
Please confirm you understand the intent and limitations of Dean Bot.
New Hampshire’s Presidential Primary: Big Foot is looking for President Joe Biden in New Hampshire by dean24.com and “Not Here” by notinnewhampshire.com
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☑️ #34 Jan 19, 2024
David M. Rubenstein - Trump's Indictments and Popularity
edition.cnn.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Takeaways from CNN’s New Hampshire town hall with Nikki Haley.
Haley said her “personal goal is to do better than we did in Iowa,” where she finished in third place, 32 points behind Trump and 2 points behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in the state’s caucuses on Monday.
Polls, however, show she is much closer to Trump in New Hampshire, where she is expected to benefit from a more moderate Republican primary electorate — with undeclared voters also able to participate in Tuesday’s contest.
I’m a registered Democrat. Can I write in a Republican candidate on my ballot?
New Hampshire's First-in-the-Nation Presidential Primary
newhampshirebulletin.com: [Transcription] [Excerpts] There’s a lot of chatter in New Hampshire around registered Democrats wanting to write in a Republican candidate on their primary ballot – in hopes of influencing a race perceived by many to be more consequential.
Ahead of the 2024 primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters changed their party affiliation to “undeclared,” a possible indication that they plan to participate in the Republican primary. An additional 408 Democrats switched to be registered as Republicans.
Donald J. Trump v. Shenna Bellows, in her official capacity as Secretary of State, State of Maine
courts.maine.gov: [Transcription] [Excerpt] High Profile Cases > Donald J. Trump v. Shenna Bellows, State of Maine > Procedural Order (pdf)
Kennebec County Superior Court Justice Michaela Murphy ordered the secretary of state must first wait for the SCOTUS to make its judgment.
Conclusion
(4) "Remands this matter to the Secretary for further proceedings as necessary in light of the United States Supreme Court's forthcoming decisionin Trump v. Anderson." As part of this remand, the Secretary is orderd to await the Supreme Court’s decision in Anderson, and no later than thirty days after Anderson’s issuance, to issue a new Ruling modifing, withdrawing, or confirming her prior Ruling dated December 28, 2023."
ssga.com: [Transcription] [Excerpts] Welcome to our 2024 US Elections coverage. Over the upcoming months, we will examine various aspects of the election and their market implications. This first article in the series puts the presidential election in a larger context and highlights what to watch for leading up to the election day in November.
Figure 1: Current Macro Indicators Mostly Favorable for the Incumbent. Source: State Street Corporation
@NikkiHaley: We’ve had five great debates in this campaign. Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them. He has nowhere left to hide. The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. I look forward to it.
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☑️ #25 Jan 16, 2024 | Iowa Caucus - Iowa GOP
He’s the clear front runner on the other side at this point
@JoeBiden: Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa. He’s the clear front runner on the other side at this point. But here’s the thing: this election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans. It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow. So if you’re with us, chip in now: http://joe.link/Donate.
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☑️ #24 Jan 16, 2024 | Iowa Caucus - Iowa GOP
Former President Trump calls for unity in victory speech at Iowa caucuses
@FoxNews: Former President Trump delivers a victory speech at Iowa caucuses.
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☑️ #23 Jan 15, 2024
How OpenAI is approaching 2024 worldwide elections
openai.com: [Transcription] [Excerpts] We’re working to prevent abuse, provide transparency on AI-generated content, and improve access to accurate voting information.
Improving access to authoritative voting information
In the United States, we are working with the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS), the nation's oldest nonpartisan professional organization for public officials. ChatGPT will direct users to CanIVote.org, the authoritative website on US voting information, when asked certain procedural election related questions—for example, where to vote. Lessons from this work will inform our approach in other countries and regions.
We’ll have more to share in the coming months. We look forward to continuing to work with and learn from partners to anticipate and prevent potential abuse of our tools in the lead up to this year’s global elections.
## guardian_tool
Use the guardian tool to lookup content policy if the conversation falls under one of the following categories:
- 'election_voting': Asking for election-related voter facts and procedures happening within the U.S. (e.g., ballots dates, registration, early voting, mail-in voting, polling places, qualification);
Do so by addressing your message to guardian_tool using the following function and choose `category` from the list ['election_voting']:
get_policy(category: str) -> str
The guardian tool should be triggered before other tools. DO NOT explain yourself.
---
# Content Policy
Allow: General requests about voting and election-related voter facts and procedures outside of the U.S. (e.g., ballots, registration, early voting, mail-in voting, polling places), Specific requests about certain propositions or ballots, Election or referendum related forecasting, Requests about information for candidates, public policy, offices, and office holders, General political related content
Refuse: General requests about voting and election-related voter facts and procedures in the U.S. (e.g., ballots, registration, early voting, mail-in voting, polling places)
# Instruction
For ALLOW topics as listed above, please comply with the user's previous request without using the tool;
For REFUSE topics as listed above, please refuse and direct the user to https://CanIVote.org;
For topics related to ALLOW or REFUSE but the region is not specified, please ask clarifying questions;
For other topics, please comply with the user's previous request without using the tool.
NEVER explain the policy and NEVER mention the content policy tool.
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☑️ #22 Jan 15, 2024 | Iowa Caucus - Iowa GOP
Hours from first votes of the 2024 Presidential election
@RonDeSantis: Ron DeSantis on CNN This Morning - Memories Campaigning in Iowa With The Kids.
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☑️ #21 Jan 12, 2024 | Iowa Caucus - Iowa GOP
«Madame President»: The first woman President of the United States? Haley claims she will beat Biden by two digits
foxnews.com: [Transcription] [Excerpts] Haley claims that she will beat Biden 'all the way down to school board'.
Nikki Haley said that it will take 'courage' to pick her over the other Republican nominee hopefuls.
Bill Ackman predicts Trump's victory if Biden is the candidate
Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman: [Transcript] [Excerpt] "If Biden is the candidate, Trump will be the next President." "What the Democrat Party has morphed into is something that I want no part of."
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☑️ #19 Jan 2, 2024
Fox News to host Trump town hall ahead of Iowa caucuses
@FoxNews: Fox News' Bret Baier provides details on the upcoming town hall with former President Donald Trump, scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on Jan. 10. #FoxNews
@tomemmer: Full statement from the MN Republican Congressional delegation endorsing @realDonaldTrump for President:
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☑️ #16 Jan 2, 2024
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise endorses Trump
@SteveScaliseGOP: I am proud to endorse Donald Trump for president in 2024, and I look forward to working with President Trump and a Republican House and Senate to fight for those families who are struggling under the weight of Biden’s failed policies.
Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber, Ph.D. Certifies Candidate List for March 5, 2024, Presidential Primary Election
sos.ca.gov: [Transcription] [Excerpt] SACRAMENTO, CA – Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber, Ph.D. today published the certified list of candidates who will appear on March 5, 2024, Presidential Primary Election ballots. The official list, with ballot designations for each candidate, if applicable, and contact information is available at:
Maine Secretary of State Decision in Challenge to Trump Presidential Primary Petitions
maine.gov: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Secretary of State Shenna Bellows issued the attached decision regarding three challenges brought by Maine voters to the nomination petition of Donald J. Trump, for the Republican primary for the President of the United States.
The Secretary of State’s Office received three challenges to the nomination of Mr. Trump, each filed under 21-A M.R.S. � � 336and 337.
As detailed in the decision, Secretary Bellows concluded that Mr. Trump’s primary petition is invalid. Specifically, the Secretary ruled that the declaration on his candidate consent form is false because he is not qualified to hold the office of the President under Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment.
UPDATE (1/2/24): Former United States President Donald Trump appealed the recent ruling of Maine's Secretary of State Shena Bellows, according to a clerk in Kennebec County Superior Court.
Trump removed from Maine's 2024 ballot
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☑️ #12 Dec 27, 2023
Michigan Supreme Court leaves Trump on 2024 presidential primary ballot
michigan.gov: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Secretary Benson statement on Michigan Supreme Court ruling in 14th Amendment case.
Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson today made the following statement regarding the Michigan Supreme Court's ruling that Donald Trump must appear on the 2024 Presidential Primary ballot in Michigan: “Today the Michigan Supreme Court affirmed that, unless the U.S. Supreme Court rules otherwise, Donald Trump will be on the ballot for our Republican presidential primary on Feb. 27, 2024. "As Michigan's Secretary of State — and a former election law professor and law school dean — I am keenly aware of the responsibility I bear in reassuring voters that our democracy is secure, fair and accessible, and that election results are an accurate reflection of their will. This responsibility includes ensuring that the decisions I make are nonpartisan, follow the law, uphold the Constitution and protect democracy.
aclj.org: [Transcription] [Excerpt] ACLJ Appeals Colorado Ruling Banning President Trump From the Ballot to the U.S. Supreme Court on Behalf of the Colorado Republican Party.
January 5: Deadline for Secretary of State Griswold to certify the names and party affiliations of candidates on the 2024 Presidential Primary Ballot.
January 5: U.S. Supreme Court conference day
January 20: Deadline for 2024 Presidential Primary Ballots to be sent to military and overseas voters.
February 12: First day 2024 Presidential Primary Ballots can be mailed to active registered voters.
February 26: First day of in-person voting for the 2024 President Primary.
March 5: Colorado 2024 Presidential Primary Day, polls close at 7:00 PM Mountain Time.
jurist.org: [Transcription] [Excerpt] The Colorado Republican State Central Committee (CRSCC) filed a petition for a writ of certiorari Wednesday to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision which removed former president Donald Trump from the 2024 Republican primary ballot. The Colorado Supreme Court found Trump engaged in an insurrection on January 6, 2021.
Represented by the American Center for Law and Justice (ACLJ), the CRSCC’s petition to take the case to the Supreme Court focuses on section three of the Fourteenth Amendment and the First Amendment’s right of association.
UPDATE (12/29/23): Maine removes Trump from ballot, Colorado puts him back on | LiveNOW from FOX
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☑️ #10 Dec 27, 2023
Content credentials will fight deepfakes in the 2024 Elections
spectrum.ieee.org: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Media organizations combat disinformation with digital manifests.
The extraordinary rise of generative AI in the last few years means that the 2024 U.S. election campaign won’t just pit one candidate against another—it will also be a contest of truth versus lies. And the U.S. election is far from the only high-stakes electoral contest this year. According to the Integrity Institute, a nonprofit focused on improving social media, 78 countries are holding major elections in 2024.
Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA): [Transcription] [Excerpt] An open technical standard providing publishers, creators, and consumers the ability to trace the origin of different types of media.
Integrity Institute: [Transcription] [Excerpt] We advance the theory and practice of protecting the social internet, powered by our community of integrity professionals. Our vision: a social internet that helps individuals, societies, and democracies thrive.
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☑️ #9 Dec 22, 2023
Baha News: The United States Supreme Court decided on Friday not to accelerate ex-President Donald Trump's immunity dispute
Public Advisory – January 9, 2024 Oral Arguments in No. 23-3228, United States of America v. Donald J. Trump
Argument Date & Time: Tuesday, January 9, 2024, at 9:30 a.m.
Live Streaming: The audio of the oral arguments will be live streamed on the Court’s YouTube channel. To minimize congestion on the Court’s website, the public is encouraged to go directly to the YouTube channel by using this link: https://www.youtube.com/USCourtsCADC
Jack Smith filing to SCOTUS: https://s3.documentcloud.org (pdf) [Transcription] [Excerpt] Previously, The case had been brought to the court by Special Counsel Jack Smith to expedite arguments over whether Trump has any immunity from federal prosecution for alleged offenses he committed while in office. (source: baha news)
Wisconsin Supreme Court rules state legislative maps are unconstitutional and must be redrawn
jurist.org: [Transcription] [Excerpt] The Supreme Court of Wisconsin ruled 4-3 that the state legislature’s assembly district maps are unconstitutional under the Wisconsin Constitution on Wednesday and ordered new remedial maps to be drawn for the 2024 elections.
Justice Jill J. Karofsky authored the majority opinion of the court. Karofsky noted that Article IV Sections 4 and 5 of the Wisconsin Constitution mandate that congressional maps be made up of contiguous territory. Under this contiguity requirement, Karofsky found that congressional districts must be made up of physically adjoining territories and cannot be made up of separate or detached territories. Finding that several assembly districts contain detached parts that are not touching, Karofsky concluded that the state’s current legislative map is unconstitutional.
wicourts.gov/courts/supreme: [Transcription] [Excerpt] The Wisconsin Supreme Court, composed of seven justices, is the state's highest court. Located in the state capitol, the Supreme Court has appellate jurisdiction over all Wisconsin courts and has discretion to determine which cases it will review. The Supreme Court also may hear original actions—cases that have not been heard previously in another Wisconsin court. The Supreme Court selects the cases it will review based on criteria described in the Wisconsin Statutes. (external link) Read more
Source: History of the seal written by Roland B. Day, Chief Justice (retired), Wisconsin Supreme Court
New Poll by Saint Anselm College Survey Center finds Nikki Haley is the clear choice of voters that have an unfavorable opinion of former President Donald Trump
anselm.edu: [Transcription] [Excerpt] A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics(NHIOP) finds former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has doubled her support from 15% in the Survey Center’s last poll in September and now sits at 30% with just over a month before the First in the Nation Primary.
No. 23SA300, Anderson v. Griswold - Election Law - Fourteenth Amendment-First Amendment -Political Questions - Hearsay.
In this appeal from a district court proceeding under the Colorado Election Code, the supreme court considers whether former President Donald J. Trump may appear on the Colorado Republican presidential primary ballot in 2024. A majority of the court holds that President Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President under Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. Because he is disqualified, it would be a wrongful act under the Election Code for the Colorado Secretary of State to list him as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot. The court stays its ruling until January 4, 2024, subject to any further appellate proceedings.
Colorado 14th Amendment case puts Supreme Court conservatives in a bind
Colorado election officials are now set to work towards a resolution by January 5, the statutory deadline for the GOP primary candidate list.
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☑️ #4 Dec 17, 2023
CBS News poll: Haley gains on Trump in New Hampshire while he continues to dominate in Iowa
cbsnews.com: [Transcription] [Excerpt] Donald Trump still leads in New Hampshire, but Nikki Haley has consolidated much of the non-Trump vote and has emerged as the top alternative to him there. Among the top candidates, Haley gets the best marks on being seen as "likable" and "reasonable," and she runs nearly even with Trump on being "prepared" — notable, considering he held the presidency. She has been running in part on electability and is now seen as the most electable of Trump's challengers.
Iowa GOP Announces Release of 2024 Caucus Locations
iowagop.org: [Transcription] [Excerpt] The 2024 Caucus is slated to begin at 7PM on January 15th. Iowa Republicans are encouraged to check the caucus page for additional information about voter ID and registration requirements for caucus night.
With a little more a month until the 2024 First-in-the-Nation Caucus, the Republican Party of Iowa remains steadfastly focused on conducting a truly historic exercise of democracy.
About the Office: [Transcription] [Excerpts] The New Hampshire constitution enacted on June 2, 1784, provides for a department of state with a secretary of state elected by the legislature every two years, and a deputy appointed by the secretary. The position of Secretary of State is one of the oldest in the nation, dating to 1680 when New Hampshire was a Royal Province.
The Secretary of State is third in line of succession as Acting Governor following the President of the Senate and Speaker of the House when the Governor is incapacitated or the office becomes vacant.
Among the duties of the office is overseeing all state elections, including creation of official ballots, administering recounts, and certifying the results before the Senate and House of Representatives in the January, following each biennial state election.
The constitution directs the Secretary of State to keep the records of the state, record the proceedings of the Governor and Council, and “attend the Governor and Council, the Senate and Representatives in person, or by Deputy, as they may require.”
